How Global Liquidity Impacts Altcoins | With Mladen Talks Crypto

thecoding interviews Mladen Talks Crypto to better understand how macro global liquidity directly constrains the start of an altcoin cycle from an investiment and trading perspective

You and I are super focused on how the tech and utility behind crypto can help us all to achieve better quality of life. But investing and trading the assets powering this tech/utility is equally important for the same reason: “Money makes the world go round.”

So, if money (liquidity) is what makes the world go round (global), macroeconomics can certainly play a signficant role in the microeconomics of crypto, which may also affect how the tech evolves and how useful it can become to us all.

For this reason I decided to do something different for this article and brought someone who understands this perspective better than I do: Mladen Talks Crypto.

“If I had to track one thing, it would be global liquidity,” Mladen

Summary: Mladen Talks Crypto and Global Liquidity

Mladen answered some questions and weighted in what he sees as an unfavorable environment for growth short-term, but a good opportunity for learning and planning ahead. The world needs to improve before crypto can move is what I take from our talk.

Geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation risks, and cautious central banks have created a “stagnating liquidity regime” where real rates remain positive and money supply isn’t expanding fast enough to fuel broad risk-taking.

Even the best projects — fundamentally speaking, with proven product-market fit — are having a hard time on the charts.

We talked about some of these fundamental aspects in another piece where Mladen interviwed me on NEAR → part of a crypto-AI series he just started covering, published on his Substack.

Where AI meets Crypto: NEAR Protocol

For now, his positioning reflects his view: leaning to a more conservative approach, fully allocated on BTC, but studying and exploring promising projects like NEAR and Solana — ready to deploy capital when global liquidity and other macroenomics become favorable, in his opinion.

See the full interview below.

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Full Interview: Mladen Talks to 「thecoding」

1. Current liquidity and macro regime

You’ve written recently about the “stagnating liquidity regime” (April 7) and the $1.28T global liquidity surge in January 2026, noting that real interest rates are still positive and altcoin season needs more consecutive liquidity months to truly ignite.

For readers who mostly follow on-chain tech rather than macro charts, how would you summarize the current setup in plain English, and what single macro indicator are you watching most closely right now?

In simple terms, the current setup in crypto is defined by uncertainty outside of crypto. Because crypto doesn’t operate in isolation.

There’s an ongoing geopolitical situation that increases inflation risk, especially through energy. Because of that, central banks remain cautious. They are not willing to ease aggressively, since that could make inflation worse.

Most altcoins are high-beta assets that depend on expanding liquidity or clearly supportive financial conditions. Right now, we don’t have that. Money supply is not growing fast enough, and real interest rates are still positive, which means investors are still rewarded for holding safer assets. That combination tends to limit broad risk-taking.

So for me, this is not a typical environment for an altcoin cycle. It’s more selective and more constrained, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that even great projects have been declining over the past few years. And for that reason, I hold BTC at the moment.

If I had to track one thing, it would be global liquidity, especially US liquidity. It doesn’t give all the answers, but it usually tells you when the environment is becoming more supportive for risk assets or alts.

2. How the regime is affecting crypto-AI specifically

Given the thin liquidity and rising inflation risks you’ve flagged, how is the current macro environment playing out differently for crypto-AI infrastructure projects versus pure narrative-driven altcoins? Why are you currently focusing on crypto-AI with a new series you recently started?

Right now, the difference between crypto-AI projects and other altcoins, in terms of which projects will outperform, is smaller than it may seem. Even strong AI-related projects are still operating inside the same macro constraints and those forces matter more than the specific narrative. Whether a project is AI, DeFi, or something else tends to be secondary.

Moreover, despite the global AI boom, crypto-AI remains relatively niche. Most users still rely on centralized models like OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic, and are not yet focused on alternatives that improve privacy or decentralization. Plus, the agent-driven economy (which is expected to thrive on blockchain technology) is still in its infancy. So it’s not surprising (and shouldn’t be) that crypto AI projects don’t have strong traction yet. It will come with time.

Yes, I’m starting a new series about AI related crypto projects. The reason I’m focusing on crypto-AI is to understand these projects earlier and more deeply, so I can position in time when conditions improve. At the same time, I want to highlight them to my readers, because crypto and AI increasingly look like a perfect match.

3. NEAR vs. Bittensor in this environment

My own recent analysis compared Bittensor (TAO) and NEAR from a product-market-fit and token-economics angle. From a retail investor’s liquidity-regime perspective, which of these two (or neither) do you see having the better risk/reward setup over the next 6–12 months, and why?

Bittensor TAO or NEAR: a Look at the Crypto-AI Race

Very interesting post. It helped me better understand the difference between TAO and NEAR from your angle. That said, I’m probably not the ideal person to give a strong conviction answer here yet, as I’m still learning the nuances between the two.

Based on what we covered in the NEAR article and your breakdown, I currently lean slightly more toward NEAR. However, it’s important to separate project quality from market performance. The better project doesn’t always perform better, especially in shorter timeframes.

TAO has had very strong momentum over the past few months, and a big part of that comes from positioning and visibility. Some of the most influential voices in the space have been consistently backing it, which created a powerful narrative tailwind. So TAO could still outperform NEAR over the next 6–12 months, driven by stronger market perception, even if its fundamentals might not be as solid.

4. Beyond the crypto-AI spectrum

Beyond NEAR and Bittensor, are there any other crypto projects that you think are being overlooked or over-hyped right now, especially in a higher-for-longer rate or stagnating-liquidity world?

Yes, I think DeFi projects are currently quite overlooked, and in many cases undeservedly so. There are a number of protocols generating real revenue with relatively strong tokenomics, but they are still struggling because the broader market conditions are not supportive.

In a higher-for-longer rate environment with stagnating liquidity, these types of assets can remain under pressure, regardless of fundamentals. Because of that, I wouldn’t necessarily say this is their moment yet, and they could still see further downside.

At the same time, I think some of the more established assets are at relatively attractive levels. Bitcoin and Solana, for example, both look reasonably priced when viewed through a longer-term lens. We shouldn’t forget tokenized gold as well (a great crisis asset, especially during a stagflation)

On the other side, I don’t see a clear example right now of a project that stands out as obviously over-hyped. The current environment tends to limit excess rather than amplify it.

5. Privacy-focused chains in a macro context

Your audience and mine both care about privacy and security (I’ve written about Zcash, Dash, IronClaw, and NEAR AI Cloud). How do you see privacy-oriented protocols like Zcash performing in the current liquidity regime compared to high-beta AI or DeFi plays? Does macro tightness make privacy tech more or less attractive to retail investors?

[Education] Shielded Zcash Easily Explained | From the Water Jar to the Lake

I think retail investors don’t focus much on privacy, and even less on understanding the technology behind it.

From my experience in the market over the past several years, most retail participants are primarily looking for asymmetric upside. If the narrative supports buying, they will buy. If it doesn’t, they usually ignore it. I’m not sure that privacy as a concept currently carries enough weight for the majority of them.

On the other hand, even though Zcash has had strong performance recently, I don’t think the current macro regime is particularly supportive for it either. Similar to TAO, part of its recent momentum likely came from strong backing by some of the more visible voices in the space.

Narratives can dominate in the short term, sometimes even overriding macro conditions. But they tend to be temporary. If the broader macro environment doesn’t shift, my expectation is that assets like Zcash could come under pressure again, although that view can always be wrong.

And if you ask me whether privacy coins are important, I’d say that decentralized privacy coins are indeed very important, and I’m glad they exist. However, from an investor’s perspective, I find it difficult to assess the fair market cap of that segment of the market.

6. DeFi yield on stablecoins

You covered Kraken’s DeFi Earn product (Jan) as a way for retail investors to access DeFi yields without the usual hassle. What’s your current view on using DeFi to generate yield on stablecoins in this environment—worth the smart-contract risk, or is it still too early given the liquidity picture? I know you are not a fan of investing in dollar-based stablecoins.

There are quite a few DeFi protocols that have been operating for years without major exploits, which says something about how the space has matured.

At the same time, risk in crypto never fully disappears. I had funds stolen from my MetaMask wallet years ago without a clear explanation. I wasn’t interacting with any apps at the time, which made it even more concerning. So whether it’s DeFi, wallet security, or even buying tokens that go to zero, risk is always present. With more established protocols, that risk is lower, but it never goes to zero.

If someone still prefers passive income through DeFi, then it makes sense to focus on well-established protocols, diversify across several of them, and use multiple strategies to reduce the risk of capital loss. And even though yield on stablecoins looks simple, I would suggest spending more time understanding liquidity provision, especially with volatile pairs. That kind of semi-active approach can often generate higher returns than stablecoin strategies.

That said, I still believe crypto offers better returns through proper spot positioning than through passive yield strategies. I learned how to use DeFi to maximize returns when needed, but I don’t see a strong reason to focus on passive income yet. My priority is growing the portfolio through spot exposure. Once that base is built (could take years lol!), using more conservative DeFi strategies will start to make more sense.

7. Portfolio, favorite projects & personal thesis

If you’re comfortable sharing: what does your own personal crypto portfolio look like right now (high-level allocation between BTC, alts, stablecoins, etc.)? What are your current thoughts on NEAR and Zcash specifically, which other projects are you most excited about following (and why), and how does your overall macro/liquidity outlook shape those convictions?

My liquid investment portfolio is currently 100% allocated to BTC. That’s not a permanent position, but a reflection of the current macro setup.

Given the conditions, I’m also considering reallocating part of the portfolio into gold. If and when the macro environment improves, especially through better liquidity conditions, I would look to rotate into altcoins as well (primarily in Solana and projects within its ecosystem).

As for specific projects, I only recently started looking into NEAR, partly thanks to your work, so it’s still early in my process. Zcash is not in my immediate focus at the moment.

In terms of where I see potential, I’m still most interested in Solana and the projects being built on top of it. It has shown strong ecosystem activity and tends to attract both developers and users.

Overall, my positioning is driven more by liquidity and macro conditions than by individual narratives.

8. Actionable advice for technical readers

My readers are mostly developers, on-chain analysts, and open-source enthusiasts who care deeply about the tech, but often get lost in the investing noise. What one piece of regime-aware advice would you give them right now to navigate the next 6–12 months without getting wrecked by macro headwinds?

If maximizing profit isn’t your main goal, and you’re not actively investing, my advice would be: don’t overcomplicate things — just stick to DCA. You don’t need to stress too much about macro.

Strong crypto projects (like NEAR or Solana) will likely still be around in 10 years and probably more valuable than they are today, regardless of whether we go through a financial crisis, geopolitical tensions, or anything else along the way. I say this because we’re seeing consistent network growth, increasing usage, expanding ecosystems, and stable revenue generation, and that progress has been compounding year after year.

If you do want to be more active as an investor, then it’s important to define a clear strategy, when you act, how you act, and why. My content, along with many others, can help build a better understanding of the forces shaping the market but ultimately, each person should develop a strategy that fits their own personality and goals.

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